It has been a while since my last post. I apologize but I needed to perfect my new rankings system. If you followed my earlier blogs about SOSPRO (Strength Of Schedule Professional)ranking, a few things have changed. In a nutshell here is what I look at when ranking my players. I try to take emotion out of the decision, I know that sounds harsh but it works. I look at the last 2-3 years of defensive competence against each position. I look to see who does good or bad against who. I give 2 points to a player when they play a team who averages in the bottom 10 teams in the league against that position. I give 1 pt for the middle of the road teams (12 in total). I give -1 points to any team in the top 10 defense against the players position. This gives me, when all 16 games are added up, a players SOSPRO coefficient. Based on this data I can tell which players match best together; who fits a persons bye week best and so on. you can also draw your own conclusions based on what you know about a players skill set, situation, health etc. A players circumstances may change but the SOSPRO remains the same. It is a drafting and acquisition tool, not the end all be all answer. Here is a player by player, team by team breakdown of the QB situation this year. ADP (Average Draft Position) is based on latest ESPN standard ADP.
Carson Palmer : ADP 134.6 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# -1 : Difference -9 : Analysis- Big sell high candidate for second half of season. Will start hot but has a rough second half schedule. Draft as back-up for Tom Brady; Brady has a tough stretch wks 5-7 and Palmer has very favorable schedule wks 5-7. After wk 10 try and sell high for position of need as Tom Brady will be good to go for remainder of season.
Matt Ryan : ADP 89.4 : SOSPRO# -3 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# -4 : Difference -5 : Analysis- Draft as QB2 for first half. Will have some really good games, but do not fall for Matty Ice this year. He will tease you with some nice games and then the wheels will fall off and he will cost you your championship. Make a trade by week 9-10 for a slow starter like Cam Newton, Jay Cutler or Tony Romo. The three of them will have slow starts but favorable schedules for 2nd half of season and your playoff run.
EJ Manuel : ADP 170 : SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference 0 : Analysis- Worth drafting as QB2. Has one of the more favorable schedules in league. Is a bit inconsistent still but worth a stash for bye week fill in or situational starts.
Cam Newton : ADP 37.3 : SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -2 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +2 : Difference +4 : Analysis- I would be wary of drafting him as my starter. Very tough schedule for passing. I know he is a mobile QB; I know he has always finished in top 5 QBs. I also know he is coming off a major ankle injury, which means that mobility is gonna be a problem in the beginning of the year. If you don't want to wait and try and acquire him mid season, because he will have a better second half, then you MUST have a 1st half plan. Back him up with RGIII, who's 1st half is very favorable. If that is too rich for your blood you could go with Carson Palmer or Ryan Tannehill (I am REAL high on Tannehill this season, see him below) for the first half until he literally gets his feet under him.
Jay Cutler : ADP 108.2 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -2 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +8 : Difference +10 : Analysis- I am a believer in Jay Cutler. He has too many weapons and Trestman has guru-ed him up good. Cutler should be drafted as a QB1 and is a steal at his current ADP. His first half is tough so back him up with Ryan Tannehill and be patient. If you miss him in the draft try and acquire him at mid season, around his bye week, as Cutler owners tend to be very impatient with him. Cutler is gonna have his best year as a pro in 2014/15.
Tony Romo : ADP 100.2 : SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +5 : Difference +9 : Analysis- Just like with Cutler, I am a Tony Romo believer. Lot of weapons, etc. A steal at ADP 100.2. Just like Cutler, back him up with Tannehill and be patient. A tough start will make it tough but that's what Tannehill is for. Romo will win you a championship based on his second half schedule, very passer friendly. If you miss him in the draft try and get him mid season, wk 8-9. After that he will start putting up the big numbers.
Peyton Manning : ADP 5.1 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +5 : Difference +4 : Analysis- It's Peyton Manning! Draft him with confidence as a QB1. I will say this: He plays BUF and CIN weeks 14 and 16 respectively. That is the fantasy playoffs, and those are two of the tougher pass defenses in the league. I know its Peyton but I would consider backing him up with either Kaepernick or Tannehill as they have better fantasy playoff match ups. But we are talking about Peyton, I'm just sayin'.
Matt Stafford : ADP 34.9 : SOSPRO# +3 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference +3 : Analysis- Stafford will have an inconsistent first half. How can that be you say? With all the weapons on that team? He throws the ball like 400 times a game, a fantasy giant? It's still the Lions...always remember that. His second half will be great. Pair Stafford with Palmer, Tannehill, Wilson, Kaepernick or RGIII. You will be glad you did. Then after wk 9 (DET bye wk) you can trade your backup QB for a valuable piece to your championship puzzle.
Aaron Rodgers : ADP 10.1 : SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference +4 : Analysis- Obviously a QB1. Bigger picture not as obvious. Rodgers plays @SEA wk 1, CAR wk 7 and @NO wk 8; a pretty tough few of games. Hear me out! back him up with Carson Palmer. Palmer through same stretch: Wk 1 SD, wk 7 @OAK, wk 8 PHI, wk 9 (GB bye wk) @DAL. On paper it makes a lot of sense. "Bench Rodgers for Carson Palmer?! This guys an idiot! I'm not even reading the rest of this crap!" I know this seems like insanity, but I never said this was gonna be easy. Stick with me though. It gets even better!
Andrew Luck : ADP 38.5 : SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference 0 : Analysis- I would not draft Luck as my primary QB. I would use him as a platoon. 2 QBs playing whichever one has the best matchup. Luck has a tough schedule this year. The QB that best fills the holes in Luck's schedule is RGIII or Carson Palmer. I would be happier waiting on QB at ADP 38.5 and grab up a RB like Spiller ADP 46 or Joique Bell ADP 70.2, or a WR like Fitzgerald ADP 38, or Keenan Allen ADP 45.4 or maybe Randall Cobb ADP 33.3 slips to you there. Better options is all I'm saying.
Alex Smith : ADP 125.2 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference +2 : Analysis- Please don't look a his +6 and say "Oh my...He hates Andrew Luck but...Alex Smith?...(some sort of snorting or shouting would go here). I do not endorse at all, not one bit, Alex Smith as your QB1. Not even a platoon. However, Smith is a solid backup. Stash him for bye week duty for Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton.
Ryan Tannehill : ADP 135 : SOSPRO# +9 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference -3 : Analysis- (DRUM ROLL...DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD TING) Here is my favorite player of the draft. Ryan Tannehill. You don't have to pay a lot to get him. He has the most favorable schedule in the league. Tannehill is the most intriguing player in his draft to me. If you are scared of waiting until pick 135 to get your starting QB. Then draft a guy like Matt Ryan ADP 89.4 and stash Tannehill on your bench as your backup. He will be your starter by week 6. Then you can trade Matt Ryan to fill out a position you lack a little somethin' in. Sky's the limit for Tannehill this year.
Tom Brady : ADP 62.9 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference -1 : Analysis- Not a lot to say about Tom Terrific. He will have a way better year than almost all of the QBs getting drafted before him. Brady has one small stretch of games wks 5-7. NE plays CIN, @BUF and NYJ. Back up Brady with Carson Palmer. Palmer plays @DEN, WAS and @OAK through that same stretch. Wk 10 (NE bye wk) Palmer plays STL. Should be a perfect match, with very little let down on those days. One of my favorite tandems to own this year. You can get 3 or 4 great position players in first rds and still get top 5 QB in 5th or 6th rd.
Drew Brees : ADP 13 : SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# -4 : Difference -8 : Analysis- Let me preface this analysis with this: I know I am going to lose some of you on this one. Everyone is so high on Brees. I have seen him go #1 in some drafts. I wouldn't draft him. His price is too high this year. Late second, Early third is soonest I would consider him. Brees is going to have a decent start. He will drop off in the second half of the season. Brees will still finish in the top 4-6 QBs this year. But he's not going to finish a mile ahead of Brady, or Cutler, or Rivers. He will beat them but he will not be worth the price of a 1st or early 2nd rd pick. Money in the bank: the combo of Brady ADP 62.9 and Demarius Thomas ADP 14.1, will be better than the combo of Brees ADP 13 and Torrey Smith ADP 64.9. I know who I would rather have.
Nick Foles : ADP 60.6 : SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference +4 : Analysis- Similar to Cam Newton, Tony Romo, and Jay Cutler. Foles will be a big buy low candidate for the second half, but with less upside than those three. PHI plays SEA wk 14 (first rd of fantasy playoffs in most leagues). If you do draft him, the best backups to have are Kaepernick, Wilson or Tannehill. They match the tough parts of Foles schedule the best. There are better options this year. Nick Foles will not be this years Nick Foles. If you know what I mean.
Phillip Rivers : ADP 106.6 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +3 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference 0 : Analysis- What does a guy have to do to get some respect around here??? Three question marks. Rivers was the 6th QB last year. 6th! This year with a similarly easy schedule...14th!?!? No respect around here. Rivers has a tough couple of games to start and to end the season. Ryan Tannehill (yeah him again) is the perfect backup for Rivers and you will have a top 5 QB waiting until the 9th or 10th rd. Although if that's my plan I probably go get him a couple rds sooner.
Russell Wilson : ADP 71.5 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference -5 : Analysis- This is the start of the low-volume QBs. Wilson does not throw a lot of passes. At least he hasn't yet. However, I believe Lynch is in for a down year. I'm not the only one. I also think a HEALTHY Percy Harvin could turn into one of the best receivers in the league this year. Which means...Wilson will throw more. Not Stafford like pass attempts or anything, but definitely more. His ADP is pretty spot on. Second half will be a little tougher as schedule gets harder and the pressure to try and repeat will begin to kick in. I would back him up with Romo or Tannehill. If you can't draft Romo as your backup; consider trying to trade Wilson for Romo mid season before the SB curse kicks in.
Colin Kaepernick : ADP 63.2 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference -5 : Analysis- I'm gonna save a few keystrokes here. See: Russell Wilson. Just change Percy Harvin to Michael Crabtree and change Marshawn Lynch to Frank Gore and friends. All the rest exactly the same (except for the SB curse part. Sorry SF.) right down to the backups.
Sam Bradford : ADP 170 : SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference 0 : Analysis- Sam. SAm. SAM! Sorry for shouting there. Bradford is just one of the most frustrating fantasy guys in recent memory. So much potential, so little success. He will have a good year this year. Schedule is very passer friendly. Finally looks 100% healthy. Looks real accurate. Nice touch. Bradford does have a bit of a bumpy schedule in the middle weeks. RGIII is the best suited tandom to go with Bradford. The two of them should be a pretty substantial 1-2 combination. Potentially of course. Have faith...I do.
Jake Locker : ADP 170 : SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference 0 : Analysis- Nice backup/QB2 value. Going undrafted in most leagues. Not a ton of value. If you happened to draft Cam Newton, Locker matches up favorably to the tough parts of Newton's schedule. 2nd half of season is slightly easier for Locker than 1st. Possible deep sleeper here.
and last but certainly not least...
Robert Griffin III : ADP 56.8 : SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +5 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference -2 : Analysis- I believe RGIII is due for a bounce back year this season. Last year he was hurt, I don't care what anyone says. He has his swag back. Finally got to work the word "swag" into my blog! WAS got him some new weapons. I think Jordan Reed is going to fight Jimmy Graham for the top TE spot this year. RGIII will be productive and consistent. His ideal backup is Sam Bradford, who goes undrafted in most leagues, so you can get your defense and/or kicker a round early and take Bradford in the last rd if you like. RGIII is one of my favorite bargains of the draft this year. Right there with Tom Brady for me.
Names left off my list because they are not worth drafting: Joe Flacco; Andy Dalton (I know, #5 QB last yr. Not this yr!!); Ben Roethlisberger; any TB, MIN, JAX, HOU, or OAK quarterback; Geno Smith or Mike Vick (although the 1st half schedule is favorable for a backup/bye week...NO, NO, NO!! It's the Jets! Never mind.); Not Manziel, not Hoyer (I would not draft them with a fox...); and last and least Eli Manning. NOT EVEN IF THERE WAS A FIRE!!!!!
Hope this helped out a little in your decision for QB this season. Its one of the deepest I can remember at QB. Potentially of course.
Fantasy Football My Way
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Lets talk 2013 NFL fantasy football draft
I would like to begin this segment of the 2013 NFL fantasy football draft with quarterback talk. There are many philosophies about what is needed at QB. I am going with one of two options. I will not draft a QB in rd 1. This year round two is even off limits for a QB. You have to get a top RB or 2 in the first two rds. At least. A top RB and then top WR. One option is: In rd 3 I am taking Peyton Manning. I believe he will be the top scoring fantasy QB next season. If he is not available in rd 3 I will take Cam newton. The other option is a more risky one but one worth taking in my book. If I don't go Manning or Newton in rd 3, I will wait till rd 8 or 9 and draft Tony Romo. Tony Romo has the second easiest schedule as far as his opponents pass defenses go. Second only to Peyton Manning. I know Romo is hard to trust but he scores. He finished in the top 10 again last year and he and Dez Bryant (who we will talk more about later) ended the season in beast mode last year. They single handedly won me my league in last years playoffs. Although some of my other drafted sleepers really helped like Randle Cobb and Doug Martin (drafted Martin in the 4th rd last year and Cobb in the 6th). But I digress. If you have a big option left to draft in the 3rd rd like MJD, go with Romo late and back him up with a Palmer or Rivers; both have potential to be top 10 guys next year if they and their teams play up to potential. Trust me.
Now to RB. I have a clear cut opinion on this position, and you probably will disagree vehemently with me on it. I do NOT like Adrian Peterson to have a year even close to last year. The Vikings have one of the toughest schedules for rushing the football. Only 2 of their 16 games will be against bottom 10 rush defenses. Last year was special and those people who drafted him early and rolled the dice were rewarded handsomely for their faith in AD. I am going in a different rout I have narrowed my first rd choice to 4 backs. I value them in this order: Arian Foster, Doug Martin, MJD, and Chris Johnson. I know those last two are a little bit of head scratchers. Hear me out! Both are clearly the best players in their team, and both organizations have done a great job this off season to put help around and most importantly IN FRONT of them. In the case of Chris Johnson, some people see Shonn Greene as a hindrance to CJ2K's scoring ability. I see him as a blessing for this reason; Johnson is not a pounder anyway, he scores on 15-20 yd scampers not 3 yd plunges. The past few years he has been asked to be the pounder and it has cost him late in games. Greene will help keep CJ from taking such a beating. Foster and Martin will be first rounders, and if they are both gone by your pick I would take a flier on Lynch, he should be pretty productive again, even though he did take a pounding last year with his style of running. MJD and Johnson should be there in rds 2 or 3. To fill out your backfield you do not have to draft RB heavy in the early rds. Wait till rds 5-7 and pick up a couple of the following backs: Montee Ball, Chris Ivory, Lamar Miller, Vick Ballard and LeVeon Bell. Two of these guys should put some good bye week and flex options at your disposal. At least 1 of these 4 are going to end up a top 10 back. I would not keep more than 4 RBs on my squad. WRs carry way more scoring potential.
Speaking of wide outs here we go. I am placing Demarius Thomas at the top of my list. With Welker and Eric Decker not far behind. The Denver WRs will face only 1 top 10 pass defense all year and that is week 1. Thomas is a 3rd rd pick but worth taking in the 2nd if you covet one of the QBs I spoke of earlier. Welker is a 3-4 rounder and Decker is around the 5th. I value Welker and Decker pretty close together so Decker would be your better value in rd 5 or 6. You are going to want at least 1 of these 3 guys in your squad. My next tier of WRs is small, in fact it is two guys. I am targeting Dez Bryant and Dwayne Bowe as my other two WRs. Dez is a second rd pick and I will be targeting him with my second rd pick in every draft this year. Bowe is a different story. He is a special receiver and Alex Smith is going to be better than anticipated. Bowe will be his favorite target. Besides being in my top 5 receivers, Bowe is also a great value in the late 4th to late 5th rd. My last starter at WR is my sleeper to finish in the top 10 WR next year: Denarius Moore. He is a available in the late rounds and will be a big scorer next year.
Tight End is an easy one this year. Forget about Graham or Gronk. Forget about Hernandez or Witten. Nope, not even Pitta or Rudolph. I have my eye on two sets of TEs. You want one from each tier. Top tier is Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis. I know Gonzo is believable but V Davis. Yes! Davis was a beast in the playoffs last year. I know his last 5 games of the regular season were rough....and I mean ROUGH. He and Kaepernick really got on the same page in the playoffs and that will carry over into this season. Both Gonzo and Davis will be available in the 7th or 8th rd. snag one of them there. Then with a late rd pick grab up Greg Olsen or Zack Miller as a backup. I think both Olsen and Miller have a shot at being this years Pitta and Rudolph.
For defense I have a short list. I will be drafting Cincinatti or Cleveland for my DST this coming season. Heck! I might draft them both and play the one with the best matchup each week. They both have the easiest schedules in'13. All the other defenses will cost you too high of a draft pick. SD is a sleeper to have another top 10 year possible top 5.
Kicker is down to two as well. Matt Prater is my top choice. If he is gone by the time you draft your kicker Novak from SD is my second choice. Both should serve you well. On their bye week you have two choices. Drop them and get another kicker for the rest of the year or drop another player and get a 1 week fill in. I would not be against the first option as long as you can get Connor Barth from TB. He was my drafted kicker last year. Since TB had a week 4 bye I just carried two kickers until week 5 then dropped the other and rode Barth out. Turned out to be a good move.
I hope this helped you see a little bit what I see for this upcoming season. To see how to fill out the bench of your roster check out my other post on the SOSPRO ratings it will give you the draft value of all your WR2s and 3s. I recommend drafting as many Redskin and Charger WRs you can to stash on the bench. They both have very favorable schedules. Also look out for Donnie Avery WR for KC, Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin and DeShaun Jackson; they are 4 of my sleepers to break into the top 15 WR for next year. All are late round, or in Avery's case largely undrafted, picks and worth stashing.
Good luck to all in the upcoming fantasy football season and my all your drafts go exactly as planned! (We all know at least one of our top choices will get sniped with the pick right before our own!) But we can hope right??!!
Saturday, April 6, 2013
2013 NFL Tight End Draft Class rankings, analysis and fantasy football impact
This blog will be about the upcoming 2013 NFL tight end draft class. The class is fairly deep, however, history tells us very few rookie tight ends really have a large impact in fantasy football. There are a few that really intrigue me. I will give the rankings for the top 20 TE rookies-to-be. I look at 3 main areas when grading a tight end. 40yd time shows speed, vertical jump shows the ability to go up and get the "jump ball", and arm length adds a few inches to that jumping ability. This combination of tools are what the modern TE needs to prosper, ala Gronk and Graham. Below are the rankings based on the data I reviewed. The six highlighted players are the ones I will go into further detail about. They are the ones I see as having the best chance of being fantasy relevant next year, provided they land in a good situation. The number next to the player's name is my score for them. The best a player could score is 3. The closer the number is to 3 the better.
One guy to look warily at is Zach Ertz. He scored much lower in all the drills than my other top prospects. 8th in 40yd time in OK; but 13th in vertical leap and 33rd in arm length are a real concern. I would really look past him if I needed a TE2. Ertz's down side really seems to out way his upside.
If I were drafting a TE next year, I don't know that I would take any of these guys as my TE1. I would definitely take any of the 7 highlighted guys as my TE2, especially Chris Gragg, Vance McDonald or Tyler Eifert. Of my top 7 keep your eye on Jake Stoneburner as a deep sleeper next year. He could sneak up and be the top rookie tight end next year.
- Chris Gragg 13
- Vance McDonald 13
- Tyler Eifert 28
- Travis Kelce 33
- Dion Simms 34
- Jake Stoneburner 38
- Gavin Escobar 39
- Levine Toilolo 39
- T.J. Knowles 42
- Lucas Reed 44
- Nick Kasa 47
- Ryan Otten 48
- Justice Cunningham 49
- Joseph Fauria 50
- Jordan Reed 51
- Zach Ertz 54
- Zach Sudfeld 56
- Mychal Rivera 60
- Jack Doyle 81
- Michael Williams 84
One guy to look warily at is Zach Ertz. He scored much lower in all the drills than my other top prospects. 8th in 40yd time in OK; but 13th in vertical leap and 33rd in arm length are a real concern. I would really look past him if I needed a TE2. Ertz's down side really seems to out way his upside.
If I were drafting a TE next year, I don't know that I would take any of these guys as my TE1. I would definitely take any of the 7 highlighted guys as my TE2, especially Chris Gragg, Vance McDonald or Tyler Eifert. Of my top 7 keep your eye on Jake Stoneburner as a deep sleeper next year. He could sneak up and be the top rookie tight end next year.
2013 NFL Running Back Draft Class rankings, analysis and fantasy football impact
Today I will look at the upcoming 2013 NFL running back draft class. This years draft is not a very deep class. In fact, there are only a few clear cut prospects that have been projected as possible starters in the league for 2013. These are Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard and possibly Marcus Lattimore. I would like to offer a little insight into which of the other backs have a good chance of surprising some teams by coming in as late round picks and making an immediate impact. I look at three different areas of combine performance when judging a backs potential. Obviously a back needs speed, but he also needs strength and explosiveness. To measure these we look at 40yd time, bench press and broad jump scores. I have ranked my top 15 backs coming out of this years draft. I have left out Eddie Lacy and Marcus Lattimore since they did not participate in the combine. I would also go out on a limb and say they both would probably be, when completely healthy, the top 2 backs in the draft. The list will go in order of the combined 40yd, bench press and broad jump scores. The best a back can score is 3. The closer the number is to 3 the better their combine performance.
Another guy on my short list of impact backs is Onterio McCalebb. This guy had the fastest combine 40yd time and the 11th best broad jump. A great combo of speed and explosiveness. The one area of concern with McCalebb is his size. At 5-10, 165 lbs he is very slight to be an every down back. While there is no legal way to help him get taller, there is plenty of weight room work that can pack lbs on him. If he could put on 20-25 lbs of muscle during OTAs and training camp, McCalebb could be a Darren Sproles like option for a team looking for that type of explosive play maker. Definitely worth a look on fantasy draft day if he winds up in the right situation.
All of this years backs seem to have some sort of question mark coming out of college. The main guys to look for besides Lacy, Lattimore and Bernard are: Christine Michael and Onterio McCalebb. I would draft any of these guys late and stash on my bench. They could prove to be very helpful in a late season push towards your fantasy championship.
- Michael Ford 12
- Knile Davis 13
- Christine Michael 13
- Kenjon Barner 23
- Zac Stacy 38
- Cierre Wood 39
- Giovani Bernard 40
- Onterio McCalebb 44
- Kerwynn Williams 48
- Jonathon Franklin 50
- Mike Gillislee 52
- Le'Veon Bell 54
- Rex Burkhead 59
- Andre Ellington 63
- Joseph Randle 70
Another guy on my short list of impact backs is Onterio McCalebb. This guy had the fastest combine 40yd time and the 11th best broad jump. A great combo of speed and explosiveness. The one area of concern with McCalebb is his size. At 5-10, 165 lbs he is very slight to be an every down back. While there is no legal way to help him get taller, there is plenty of weight room work that can pack lbs on him. If he could put on 20-25 lbs of muscle during OTAs and training camp, McCalebb could be a Darren Sproles like option for a team looking for that type of explosive play maker. Definitely worth a look on fantasy draft day if he winds up in the right situation.
All of this years backs seem to have some sort of question mark coming out of college. The main guys to look for besides Lacy, Lattimore and Bernard are: Christine Michael and Onterio McCalebb. I would draft any of these guys late and stash on my bench. They could prove to be very helpful in a late season push towards your fantasy championship.
Friday, April 5, 2013
2013 NFL Wide Reciver Draft Class rankings, analysis and fantasy football impact
Today's blog is going to take a look at the upcoming 2013 NFL draft. I will specifically be looking at the Wide Receivers. I will analyze which will be good bets to have a fantasy impact this year and which ones to be wary of. The receiver class is fairly deep this year. With so many teams going with a more pass heavy approach there are several receivers that could have a decent impact as rookies next year. The things I look at to make a strong receiver in the NFL are speed, hands and leaping ability. A lot of the receivers at the combine with the fastest times did not do so well in the intangible areas that make a great receiver. It is all about what you want. Speed above all else and you could end up with a Heyward-Bey like situation. If you go for the best combination of skills and intangibles you could end up with an A.J. Green situation. I would rather have the later. I also do not worry about attitude problems in receivers. They are all a bit diva-ish nowadays. So here are my updated top 25 wide receiver prospect rankings based on what I believe makes a great receiver. The number next to the WRs name is the quotient I use to measure their NFL potential. The smaller the number the better the prospect. The best a WR can score is 3. Scores over 100 are pretty low. A few may surprise you.
**Remember these are not ranking when a guy is gonna go in the draft, this tells you which guys have the best potential to make a team and play a relevant role. Which players will have the best chance to have a fantasy impact.**
The guys I want to talk about are Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Rodney Smith and Stedman Bailey. Of all my prospects, these are my top 4 to make an impact with their respective teams next year. All 4 finished in the top 34 40yd times. Patterson and Hunter finished in the top 10, Smith was 28th and Bailey was 34th. Remember I said speed is not everything, but that is still not bad when combined with the next stats. Patterson and Hunter finished in the top 5 in the vertical jump. Hunter 1st and Patterson 5th. Bailey and Smith ranked 14th and 15th respectively in the vertical jump. When is comes to hand size the ranks go as follows: Smith 2nd, Bailey 11th, Hunter 39th and Patterson 65th. I am kind of giving Patterson a pass on his low ranking for hand size. The difference between Patterson (9 in. and Justin Hunter (9.38 in) was just .38 inches, less than half an inch. Compare that to Rodney Smith (10.38 in) and Stedman Bailey (9.88). These guys are physical freaks. I like Patterson 6'2", Hunter 6'4" and Smith 6'5" because they also bring great size to the equation. My personal favorite is Stedman Bailey. At 5'10" he is not a huge guy, but in this 3 receiver set heavy NFL, every team is looking for that Wes Welker/Victor Cruz like guy to fill the slot. Bailey will fill that role perfectly on the right team. He could come in on day one as a #1 slot and be very productive. Look at the numbers the current best slot guys are putting up. If Stedman Bailey puts up half of Welker's numbers he will have somewhere in the neighborhood of 69 catches, 3 TDs and over 650 yds receiving. Not bad for a rookie and I expect it to be better than that.
Drafting a rookie receiver in fantasy football is a tough thing to count on. The good thing is if these guys land on the perfect team for them, they will still not be a high draft pick (with the exception of Patterson, possibly a mid rd pick). Pick these guys up in the later rds and stash them on your bench. They will help you win a championship later in the season when they establish themselves.
**Remember these are not ranking when a guy is gonna go in the draft, this tells you which guys have the best potential to make a team and play a relevant role. Which players will have the best chance to have a fantasy impact.**
- Rodney Smith 45
- Justin Hunter 50
- Cordarrelle Patterson 76
- Stedman Bailey 59
- Tavarres King 59
- Corey Fuller 70
- Aaron Mellette 71
- Josh Boyce 73
- Deandre Hopkins 74
- Chris Harper 80
- Da'Rick Rogers 83
- Denard Robinson 85
- Markus Wheaton 85
- Kenny Stills 90
- Tavon Austin 90
- Robert Woods 90
- Ryan Swope 98
- Marquise Goodwin 100+
- Keenan Allen 100+
- Quinton Patton 100+
- Aaron Dobson 100+
- Cobi Hamilton 100+
- Conner Vernon 100+
- Terrance Williams 100+
- Ace Sanders 100+
The guys I want to talk about are Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Rodney Smith and Stedman Bailey. Of all my prospects, these are my top 4 to make an impact with their respective teams next year. All 4 finished in the top 34 40yd times. Patterson and Hunter finished in the top 10, Smith was 28th and Bailey was 34th. Remember I said speed is not everything, but that is still not bad when combined with the next stats. Patterson and Hunter finished in the top 5 in the vertical jump. Hunter 1st and Patterson 5th. Bailey and Smith ranked 14th and 15th respectively in the vertical jump. When is comes to hand size the ranks go as follows: Smith 2nd, Bailey 11th, Hunter 39th and Patterson 65th. I am kind of giving Patterson a pass on his low ranking for hand size. The difference between Patterson (9 in. and Justin Hunter (9.38 in) was just .38 inches, less than half an inch. Compare that to Rodney Smith (10.38 in) and Stedman Bailey (9.88). These guys are physical freaks. I like Patterson 6'2", Hunter 6'4" and Smith 6'5" because they also bring great size to the equation. My personal favorite is Stedman Bailey. At 5'10" he is not a huge guy, but in this 3 receiver set heavy NFL, every team is looking for that Wes Welker/Victor Cruz like guy to fill the slot. Bailey will fill that role perfectly on the right team. He could come in on day one as a #1 slot and be very productive. Look at the numbers the current best slot guys are putting up. If Stedman Bailey puts up half of Welker's numbers he will have somewhere in the neighborhood of 69 catches, 3 TDs and over 650 yds receiving. Not bad for a rookie and I expect it to be better than that.
Drafting a rookie receiver in fantasy football is a tough thing to count on. The good thing is if these guys land on the perfect team for them, they will still not be a high draft pick (with the exception of Patterson, possibly a mid rd pick). Pick these guys up in the later rds and stash them on your bench. They will help you win a championship later in the season when they establish themselves.
Tuesday, April 2, 2013
Top 200 SOSPRO rankings
A WORD ABOUT THIS TOP 200 LIST
**Last updated 5/4/2013**
This list is not meant to tell you who to draft, but rather what position to draft your players. Every fantasy football player has his/her own method for drafting their team. This is meant to be a tool for gauging which players have the best value for their draft position. My rankings rank players based on their ability to score maximum fantasy points. For example, let’s look at 4 quarterbacks: Peyton, Brady, Rivers and Romo. In Matthew Berry’s top 200 for 2013 (the newest April version) he has these 4 ranked;
This list is not meant to tell you who to draft, but rather what position to draft your players. Every fantasy football player has his/her own method for drafting their team. This is meant to be a tool for gauging which players have the best value for their draft position. My rankings rank players based on their ability to score maximum fantasy points. For example, let’s look at 4 quarterbacks: Peyton, Brady, Rivers and Romo. In Matthew Berry’s top 200 for 2013 (the newest April version) he has these 4 ranked;
Peyton 29
Brady 20
Rivers 140
Romo 89
Christopher Harris did rankings with his top 50 for 2013 (January version). He has the same four players ranked;
Peyton 21
Brady 9
Rivers unranked
Romo 43
These rankings tell you where in the upcoming fantasy drafts each of these players may be drafted. In standard 12 team leagues this would put a draft position for each of these players as follows:
Peyton late 2nd rd- mid 3rd rd
Brady 2nd rd
Rivers 12th rd
Romo averages out to a 6th rd pick
This info will be necessary to use my rankings. Let’s look at the same four players’ SOSPRO rankings.
Peyton 1 Brady 34 Rivers 12 Romo 5
These are the SOSPRO rankings. Using the projected draft positions we figured out earlier combined with these SOSPRO rankings we get the following information. Manning is a pretty good value in the late 3rd to early 4th rd as he has the best schedule to score fantasy points against this coming season. Brady is not as good a value as he is ranked 2 rds ahead of Peyton while having a schedule more difficult than 13 other QBs. Rivers is the biggest anomaly. I have him ranked 12 based on his SOSPRO numbers. This does not mean I think he is the 4th best QB in the NFL, behind only Peyton, Romo and Newton. This means based on the upcoming schedule he has the 4th easiest path to score maximum fantasy pts. Will he be the number 4 scoring QB next year? Probably not. What you can get out of this ranking is what I am taking out of it; Rivers will be a great 10th rd pick in your draft as a QB2. I will be picking him up late and stashing on the bench for my starters bye week and hope that he actually plays up to his potential. Would I draft him as my starter based on my SOSPRO projection? NO. If I am a 2 QB player and use the match ups to decide which of my to QBs to play, am I drafting him? YES. Then there is Romo. I have him ranked number 5. As a projected 4th rd, possibly late 5th rd pick, Romo has the best upside for a fantasy starter. Romo has the second easiest path to scoring maximum fantasy pts next season. As a 4th or 5th rd pick, you should be able to draft your starting QB (Romo) in rd 4 or 5, and stock up on WR and RB in the first 3 rds. I hope you can see how to use my tool to help you choose which players to draft and where.
Here are my complete Top 200 Fantasy Football Rankings for 2013 based on my SOSPRO ranking system. The number after each player is their SOSPRO number. In the event their is only a team name and a position on a line, it shows where a starter is not yet determined and the ranking will apply to the eventual starter. Highlighted names will be reserved for free agents who have not found a home yet. Where they land could move them up or down a little but should be relatively close to where they are right now.
- Peyton Manning QB 42
- Demarius Thomas WR 39
- Eric Decker WR 37
- Wes Welker WR 37
- Tony Romo QB 36
- Dez Bryant WR 35
- Arian Foster RB 33
- Cam Newton QB 30
- Dwayne Bowe WR 30
- Doug Martin RB 30
- M Jones-Drew RB 30
- Phillip Rivers QB 30
- Miles Austin WR 30
- Chris Johnson RB 28
- Andrew Luck QB 28
- Matt Schaub QB 28
- Carson Palmer QB 28
- Robert Griffin III QB 27
- Tony Gonzales TE 27
- Raiders QB 27
- Alex Smith QB 27
- Donnie Avery WR 27
- Marshawn Lynch RB 26
- Calvin Johnson WR 26
- Frank Gore RB 26
- Russel Wilson QB 26
- Matt Ryan QB 26
- Montee Ball RB 26
- Vernon Davis TE 25
- Denarius Moore WR 25
- CJ Spiller RB 24
- Stevan Ridley RB 24
- Collin Kaepernick QB 24
- Tom Brady QB 24
- Aaron Rodgers QB 24
- Jimmy Graham TE 24
- Eli Manning QB 24
- Lamar Miller RB 24
- Santana Moss WR 24
- Victor Cruz WR 23
- Greg Olsen TE 23
- Zack Miller TE 23
- Anthony Armstrong WR 23
- Jamaal Charles RB 22
- Brandon Marshall WR 22
- Trent Richardson RB 22
- Pierre Garcon WR 22
- Danario Alexander WR 22
- Leonard Hankerson WR 22
- Vick Ballard RB 22
- Julio Jones WR 21
- Rob Gronkowski TE 21
- Roddy White WR 21
- Chris Ivory RB 21
- James Jones WR 21
- Jeremy Maclin WR 21
- Andy Dalton QB 21
- Le'Veon Bell RB 21
- Darren McFadden RB 21
- Drew Brees QB 20
- Randall Cobb WR 20
- AJ Green WR 20
- Matt Stafford QB 20
- Steve Smith (CAR) WR 20
- Hakeem Nicks WR 20
- Ryan Tannehill QB 20
- Ben Roethlisberger QB 20
- Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener TE 20
- Adrian Peterson RB 19
- Cecil Shorts WR 19
- Percy Harvin WR 19
- Larry Fitzgerald WR 19
- Mike Vick QB 19
- Josh Freeman QB 19
- DeSean Jackson WR 19
- Reggie Wayne WR 19
- Michael Crabtree WR 19
- Malcolm Floyd WR 19
- Antonio Gates TE 19
- Jay Cutler QB 19
- Jake Locker QB 19
- Nate Burleson WR 19
- Rod Streater WR 19
- Steven Jackson RB 18
- Andre Johnson WR 18
- Owen Daniels TE 18
- Jason Witten TE 18
- Darren Sproles RB 18
- Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis RB 18
- Matt Forte RB 18
- Jordy Nelson WR 18
- T Y Hilton WR 18
- Giovani Bernard RB 18
- Alfred Morris RB 17
- Eddy Lacy RB 17
- Aaron Hernandez TE 17
- Rashard Mendenhall RB 17
- Ryan Mathews RB 17
- Blaine Gabbert QB 17
- Danny Amendola WR 16
- Anquan Boldin WR 16
- Justin Blackmon WR 16
- Bandon Myers TE 16
- Ahmad Bradshaw RB 16
- Darrius Heyward-Bey WR 16
- Sydney Rice WR 16
- Golden Tate WR 16
- Vincent Brown WR 16
- Jared Cook TE 16
- D'Angelo Williams RB 16
- Jonathon Stewart RB 16
- CIN Bengals DST 16
- Brandon Lafell WR 16
- Dolphins TE 16 **take your pick**
- Joe Flacco QB 15
- Pierre Thomas RB 15
- CLE Browns DST 15
- Isaiah Pead/Darryl Richardson RB 15
- Alshon Jefferey WR 15
- Jacob Tamme/Joel Dreesen TE 15
- Jermichael Finley TE 15
- Ray Rice RB 14
- LeSean McCoy RB 14
- Dennis Pitta TE 14
- Torrey Smith WR 14
- Mike Wallace WR 14
- Heath Miller TE 14
- Brian Hartline WR 14
- Domenik Hixon WR 14
- PIT Steelers DST 14
- Sam Bradford QB 14
- Tavon Austin WR 14
- Marques Colston WR 13
- Antonio Brown WR 13
- Brandon Lloyd WR 13
- David Wilson RB 13
- BAL Ravens DST 13
- Marcedes Lewis TE 13
- Rueben Randle WR 13
- Browns QB 13
- Andrew Hawkins WR 13
- Lance Moore WR 12
- Stevie Johnson WR 12
- Brent Celek TE 12
- Brandon Gibson WR 12
- EJ Manuel QB 12
- Brandon Pettigrew TE 12
- Josh Gordon WR 12
- Davon Bess WR 12
- Vincent Jackson WR 11
- Emmanuel Sanders WR 11
- Steadman Bailey WR 11
- HOU Texans DST 11
- NE Patriots DST 11
- Rob Housler TE 11
- Julien Edelman WR 11
- IND Colts DST 11
- Robert Woods WR 11
- Plaxico Burress WR 11
- Mark Sanchez QB 11 **if he is the starter :)**
- Greg Jennings WR 10
- Reggie Bush RB 10
- DEN Broncos DST 10
- Martellus Bennett TE 10
- Michael Williams (TB) WR 10
- Jacoby Jones WR 10
- BUF Bills DST 10
- Tyler Eifert TE 10
- Vance MacDonald TE 10
- Jeremy Kerley WR 10
- Santonio Holmes WR 10
- CHI Bears DST 9
- NYJ Jets DST 9
- Dustin Keller TE 9
- TEN Titans DST 9
- Fred Davis TE 9
- SEA Seahawks DST 8
- Demarco Murray RB 8
- SD Chargers DST 8
- Kenny Britt WR 8
- Chris Givens WR 8
- Justin Hunter WR 8
- Nate Washington WR 8
- Kendall Wright WR 8
- MIA Dophins DST 8
- DET Lions DST 8
- Donald Nelson WR 8
- Andre Roberts WR 8
- Brian Quick WR 8
- Jerome Simpson WR 8
- Matt Prater K 7
- SF 49ers DST 7
- Nick Novak K 7
- Delaney Walker TE 7
- Scott Chandler TE 7
- MIN Vikings DST 7
- JAX Jaguars DST 7
- OAK Raiders DST 7
- Ted Ginn JR WR 7
- Joshua Cribbs WR 6
First Fantasy Football blog of many
First fantasy football blog of my career. I would like to start with a piece I have been working on for a while now. Basically it has been forming since the end of last fantasy football season. I have been working on a draft day tool called the SOSPRO number. Basically this is a number used to describe a players potential to score fantasy points at a maximum level. This number is not a ranking in the sense it tells you a players rank compared to another player like all the ESPN and YAHOO ranks do. This is a tool to help you decide where to select a player based on his draft day value. My system will show you which guys will be a great steal in rounds 4 or 5, as well as show you the folly of wasting a 1st or 2nd rd pick on a guy. Here is my list as of today's transactions. This should be fairly accurate as almost all major free agents and QBs are settled down now. It also does not rank any players from the current draft class. This shouldn't be a big deal though as most of them would be non-impact players this year; with the exception of a few WRs and maybe a RB or two. Rookies are always a gamble and really it is up to the drafter where they will go as all projections are completely speculatory. My next blog will contain the document I have been creating with my top 200 players based on their SOSPRO draft value number. Thanks for checking out my blog and hope to see you back!
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