It has been a while since my last post. I apologize but I needed to perfect my new rankings system. If you followed my earlier blogs about SOSPRO (Strength Of Schedule Professional)ranking, a few things have changed. In a nutshell here is what I look at when ranking my players. I try to take emotion out of the decision, I know that sounds harsh but it works. I look at the last 2-3 years of defensive competence against each position. I look to see who does good or bad against who. I give 2 points to a player when they play a team who averages in the bottom 10 teams in the league against that position. I give 1 pt for the middle of the road teams (12 in total). I give -1 points to any team in the top 10 defense against the players position. This gives me, when all 16 games are added up, a players SOSPRO coefficient. Based on this data I can tell which players match best together; who fits a persons bye week best and so on. you can also draw your own conclusions based on what you know about a players skill set, situation, health etc. A players circumstances may change but the SOSPRO remains the same. It is a drafting and acquisition tool, not the end all be all answer. Here is a player by player, team by team breakdown of the QB situation this year. ADP (Average Draft Position) is based on latest ESPN standard ADP.
Carson Palmer : ADP 134.6 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# -1 : Difference -9 : Analysis- Big sell high candidate for second half of season. Will start hot but has a rough second half schedule. Draft as back-up for Tom Brady; Brady has a tough stretch wks 5-7 and Palmer has very favorable schedule wks 5-7. After wk 10 try and sell high for position of need as Tom Brady will be good to go for remainder of season.
Matt Ryan : ADP 89.4 : SOSPRO# -3 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# -4 : Difference -5 : Analysis- Draft as QB2 for first half. Will have some really good games, but do not fall for Matty Ice this year. He will tease you with some nice games and then the wheels will fall off and he will cost you your championship. Make a trade by week 9-10 for a slow starter like Cam Newton, Jay Cutler or Tony Romo. The three of them will have slow starts but favorable schedules for 2nd half of season and your playoff run.
EJ Manuel : ADP 170 : SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference 0 : Analysis- Worth drafting as QB2. Has one of the more favorable schedules in league. Is a bit inconsistent still but worth a stash for bye week fill in or situational starts.
Cam Newton : ADP 37.3 : SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -2 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +2 : Difference +4 : Analysis- I would be wary of drafting him as my starter. Very tough schedule for passing. I know he is a mobile QB; I know he has always finished in top 5 QBs. I also know he is coming off a major ankle injury, which means that mobility is gonna be a problem in the beginning of the year. If you don't want to wait and try and acquire him mid season, because he will have a better second half, then you MUST have a 1st half plan. Back him up with RGIII, who's 1st half is very favorable. If that is too rich for your blood you could go with Carson Palmer or Ryan Tannehill (I am REAL high on Tannehill this season, see him below) for the first half until he literally gets his feet under him.
Jay Cutler : ADP 108.2 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -2 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +8 : Difference +10 : Analysis- I am a believer in Jay Cutler. He has too many weapons and Trestman has guru-ed him up good. Cutler should be drafted as a QB1 and is a steal at his current ADP. His first half is tough so back him up with Ryan Tannehill and be patient. If you miss him in the draft try and acquire him at mid season, around his bye week, as Cutler owners tend to be very impatient with him. Cutler is gonna have his best year as a pro in 2014/15.
Tony Romo : ADP 100.2 : SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +5 : Difference +9 : Analysis- Just like with Cutler, I am a Tony Romo believer. Lot of weapons, etc. A steal at ADP 100.2. Just like Cutler, back him up with Tannehill and be patient. A tough start will make it tough but that's what Tannehill is for. Romo will win you a championship based on his second half schedule, very passer friendly. If you miss him in the draft try and get him mid season, wk 8-9. After that he will start putting up the big numbers.
Peyton Manning : ADP 5.1 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +5 : Difference +4 : Analysis- It's Peyton Manning! Draft him with confidence as a QB1. I will say this: He plays BUF and CIN weeks 14 and 16 respectively. That is the fantasy playoffs, and those are two of the tougher pass defenses in the league. I know its Peyton but I would consider backing him up with either Kaepernick or Tannehill as they have better fantasy playoff match ups. But we are talking about Peyton, I'm just sayin'.
Matt Stafford : ADP 34.9 : SOSPRO# +3 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference +3 : Analysis- Stafford will have an inconsistent first half. How can that be you say? With all the weapons on that team? He throws the ball like 400 times a game, a fantasy giant? It's still the Lions...always remember that. His second half will be great. Pair Stafford with Palmer, Tannehill, Wilson, Kaepernick or RGIII. You will be glad you did. Then after wk 9 (DET bye wk) you can trade your backup QB for a valuable piece to your championship puzzle.
Aaron Rodgers : ADP 10.1 : SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference +4 : Analysis- Obviously a QB1. Bigger picture not as obvious. Rodgers plays @SEA wk 1, CAR wk 7 and @NO wk 8; a pretty tough few of games. Hear me out! back him up with Carson Palmer. Palmer through same stretch: Wk 1 SD, wk 7 @OAK, wk 8 PHI, wk 9 (GB bye wk) @DAL. On paper it makes a lot of sense. "Bench Rodgers for Carson Palmer?! This guys an idiot! I'm not even reading the rest of this crap!" I know this seems like insanity, but I never said this was gonna be easy. Stick with me though. It gets even better!
Andrew Luck : ADP 38.5 : SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference 0 : Analysis- I would not draft Luck as my primary QB. I would use him as a platoon. 2 QBs playing whichever one has the best matchup. Luck has a tough schedule this year. The QB that best fills the holes in Luck's schedule is RGIII or Carson Palmer. I would be happier waiting on QB at ADP 38.5 and grab up a RB like Spiller ADP 46 or Joique Bell ADP 70.2, or a WR like Fitzgerald ADP 38, or Keenan Allen ADP 45.4 or maybe Randall Cobb ADP 33.3 slips to you there. Better options is all I'm saying.
Alex Smith : ADP 125.2 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference +2 : Analysis- Please don't look a his +6 and say "Oh my...He hates Andrew Luck but...Alex Smith?...(some sort of snorting or shouting would go here). I do not endorse at all, not one bit, Alex Smith as your QB1. Not even a platoon. However, Smith is a solid backup. Stash him for bye week duty for Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton.
Ryan Tannehill : ADP 135 : SOSPRO# +9 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference -3 : Analysis- (DRUM ROLL...DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD TING) Here is my favorite player of the draft. Ryan Tannehill. You don't have to pay a lot to get him. He has the most favorable schedule in the league. Tannehill is the most intriguing player in his draft to me. If you are scared of waiting until pick 135 to get your starting QB. Then draft a guy like Matt Ryan ADP 89.4 and stash Tannehill on your bench as your backup. He will be your starter by week 6. Then you can trade Matt Ryan to fill out a position you lack a little somethin' in. Sky's the limit for Tannehill this year.
Tom Brady : ADP 62.9 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference -1 : Analysis- Not a lot to say about Tom Terrific. He will have a way better year than almost all of the QBs getting drafted before him. Brady has one small stretch of games wks 5-7. NE plays CIN, @BUF and NYJ. Back up Brady with Carson Palmer. Palmer plays @DEN, WAS and @OAK through that same stretch. Wk 10 (NE bye wk) Palmer plays STL. Should be a perfect match, with very little let down on those days. One of my favorite tandems to own this year. You can get 3 or 4 great position players in first rds and still get top 5 QB in 5th or 6th rd.
Drew Brees : ADP 13 : SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# -4 : Difference -8 : Analysis- Let me preface this analysis with this: I know I am going to lose some of you on this one. Everyone is so high on Brees. I have seen him go #1 in some drafts. I wouldn't draft him. His price is too high this year. Late second, Early third is soonest I would consider him. Brees is going to have a decent start. He will drop off in the second half of the season. Brees will still finish in the top 4-6 QBs this year. But he's not going to finish a mile ahead of Brady, or Cutler, or Rivers. He will beat them but he will not be worth the price of a 1st or early 2nd rd pick. Money in the bank: the combo of Brady ADP 62.9 and Demarius Thomas ADP 14.1, will be better than the combo of Brees ADP 13 and Torrey Smith ADP 64.9. I know who I would rather have.
Nick Foles : ADP 60.6 : SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference +4 : Analysis- Similar to Cam Newton, Tony Romo, and Jay Cutler. Foles will be a big buy low candidate for the second half, but with less upside than those three. PHI plays SEA wk 14 (first rd of fantasy playoffs in most leagues). If you do draft him, the best backups to have are Kaepernick, Wilson or Tannehill. They match the tough parts of Foles schedule the best. There are better options this year. Nick Foles will not be this years Nick Foles. If you know what I mean.
Phillip Rivers : ADP 106.6 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +3 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference 0 : Analysis- What does a guy have to do to get some respect around here??? Three question marks. Rivers was the 6th QB last year. 6th! This year with a similarly easy schedule...14th!?!? No respect around here. Rivers has a tough couple of games to start and to end the season. Ryan Tannehill (yeah him again) is the perfect backup for Rivers and you will have a top 5 QB waiting until the 9th or 10th rd. Although if that's my plan I probably go get him a couple rds sooner.
Russell Wilson : ADP 71.5 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference -5 : Analysis- This is the start of the low-volume QBs. Wilson does not throw a lot of passes. At least he hasn't yet. However, I believe Lynch is in for a down year. I'm not the only one. I also think a HEALTHY Percy Harvin could turn into one of the best receivers in the league this year. Which means...Wilson will throw more. Not Stafford like pass attempts or anything, but definitely more. His ADP is pretty spot on. Second half will be a little tougher as schedule gets harder and the pressure to try and repeat will begin to kick in. I would back him up with Romo or Tannehill. If you can't draft Romo as your backup; consider trying to trade Wilson for Romo mid season before the SB curse kicks in.
Colin Kaepernick : ADP 63.2 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference -5 : Analysis- I'm gonna save a few keystrokes here. See: Russell Wilson. Just change Percy Harvin to Michael Crabtree and change Marshawn Lynch to Frank Gore and friends. All the rest exactly the same (except for the SB curse part. Sorry SF.) right down to the backups.
Sam Bradford : ADP 170 : SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference 0 : Analysis- Sam. SAm. SAM! Sorry for shouting there. Bradford is just one of the most frustrating fantasy guys in recent memory. So much potential, so little success. He will have a good year this year. Schedule is very passer friendly. Finally looks 100% healthy. Looks real accurate. Nice touch. Bradford does have a bit of a bumpy schedule in the middle weeks. RGIII is the best suited tandom to go with Bradford. The two of them should be a pretty substantial 1-2 combination. Potentially of course. Have faith...I do.
Jake Locker : ADP 170 : SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference 0 : Analysis- Nice backup/QB2 value. Going undrafted in most leagues. Not a ton of value. If you happened to draft Cam Newton, Locker matches up favorably to the tough parts of Newton's schedule. 2nd half of season is slightly easier for Locker than 1st. Possible deep sleeper here.
and last but certainly not least...
Robert Griffin III : ADP 56.8 : SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +5 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference -2 : Analysis- I believe RGIII is due for a bounce back year this season. Last year he was hurt, I don't care what anyone says. He has his swag back. Finally got to work the word "swag" into my blog! WAS got him some new weapons. I think Jordan Reed is going to fight Jimmy Graham for the top TE spot this year. RGIII will be productive and consistent. His ideal backup is Sam Bradford, who goes undrafted in most leagues, so you can get your defense and/or kicker a round early and take Bradford in the last rd if you like. RGIII is one of my favorite bargains of the draft this year. Right there with Tom Brady for me.
Names left off my list because they are not worth drafting: Joe Flacco; Andy Dalton (I know, #5 QB last yr. Not this yr!!); Ben Roethlisberger; any TB, MIN, JAX, HOU, or OAK quarterback; Geno Smith or Mike Vick (although the 1st half schedule is favorable for a backup/bye week...NO, NO, NO!! It's the Jets! Never mind.); Not Manziel, not Hoyer (I would not draft them with a fox...); and last and least Eli Manning. NOT EVEN IF THERE WAS A FIRE!!!!!
Hope this helped out a little in your decision for QB this season. Its one of the deepest I can remember at QB. Potentially of course.
