Fantasy Football QB SOSPRO rankings and insights for 2014/15 seaon. A player by player look at fantasy's most important position.

It has been a while since my last post. I apologize but I needed to perfect my new rankings system. If you followed my earlier blogs about SOSPRO (Strength Of Schedule Professional)ranking, a few things have changed. In a nutshell here is what I look at when ranking my players. I try to take emotion out of the decision, I know that sounds harsh but it works. I look at the last 2-3 years of defensive competence against each position. I look to see who does good or bad against who. I give 2 points to a player when they play a team who averages in the bottom 10 teams in the league against that position. I give 1 pt for the middle of the road teams (12 in total). I give -1 points to any team in the top 10 defense against the players position. This gives me, when all 16 games are added up, a players SOSPRO coefficient. Based on this data I can tell which players match best together; who fits a persons bye week best and so on. you can also draw your own conclusions based on what you know about a players skill set, situation, health etc. A players circumstances may change but the SOSPRO remains the same. It is a drafting and acquisition tool, not the end all be all answer. Here is a player by player, team by team breakdown of the QB situation this year. ADP (Average Draft Position) is based on latest ESPN standard ADP.

Carson Palmer : ADP 134.6 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# -1 : Difference -9 : Analysis- Big sell high candidate for second half of season. Will start hot but has a rough second half schedule. Draft as back-up for Tom Brady; Brady has a tough stretch wks 5-7 and Palmer has very favorable schedule wks 5-7. After wk 10 try and sell high for position of need as Tom Brady will be good to go for remainder of season.

Matt Ryan : ADP 89.4 : SOSPRO# -3 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# -4 : Difference -5 : Analysis- Draft as QB2 for first half. Will have some really good games, but do not fall for Matty Ice this year. He will tease you with some nice games and then the wheels will fall off and he will cost you your championship. Make a trade by week 9-10 for a slow starter like Cam Newton, Jay Cutler or Tony Romo. The three of them will have slow starts but favorable schedules for 2nd half of season and your playoff run.

EJ Manuel : ADP 170 : SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference 0 : Analysis- Worth drafting as QB2. Has one of the more favorable schedules in league. Is a bit inconsistent still but worth a stash for bye week fill in or situational starts.

Cam Newton : ADP 37.3 : SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -2 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +2 : Difference +4 : Analysis- I would be wary of drafting him as my starter. Very tough schedule for passing. I know he is a mobile QB; I know he has always finished in top 5 QBs. I also know he is coming off a major ankle injury, which means that mobility is gonna be a problem in the beginning of the year. If you don't want to wait and try and acquire him mid season, because he will have a better second half, then you MUST have a 1st half plan. Back him up with RGIII, who's 1st half is very favorable. If that is too rich for your blood you could go with Carson Palmer or Ryan Tannehill (I am REAL high on Tannehill this season, see him below) for the first half until he literally gets his feet under him.

Jay Cutler : ADP 108.2 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -2 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +8 : Difference +10 : Analysis- I am a believer in Jay Cutler. He has too many weapons and Trestman has guru-ed him up good. Cutler should be drafted as a QB1 and is a steal at his current ADP. His first half is tough so back him up with Ryan Tannehill and be patient. If you miss him in the draft try and acquire him at mid season, around his bye week, as Cutler owners tend to be very impatient with him. Cutler is gonna have his best year as a pro in 2014/15.

Tony Romo : ADP 100.2 : SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +5 : Difference +9 : Analysis- Just like with Cutler, I am a Tony Romo believer. Lot of weapons, etc. A steal at ADP 100.2. Just like Cutler, back him up with Tannehill and be patient. A tough start will make it tough but that's what Tannehill is for. Romo will win you a championship based on his second half schedule, very passer friendly. If you miss him in the draft try and get him mid season, wk 8-9. After that he will start putting up the big numbers.

Peyton Manning : ADP 5.1 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +5 : Difference +4 : Analysis- It's Peyton Manning! Draft him with confidence as a QB1. I will say this: He plays BUF and CIN weeks 14 and 16 respectively. That is the fantasy playoffs, and those are two of the tougher pass defenses in the league. I know its Peyton but I would consider backing him up with either Kaepernick or Tannehill as they have better fantasy playoff match ups. But we are talking about Peyton, I'm just sayin'.

Matt Stafford : ADP 34.9 : SOSPRO# +3 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference +3 : Analysis- Stafford will have an inconsistent first half. How can that be you say? With all the weapons on that team? He throws the ball like 400 times a game, a fantasy giant? It's still the Lions...always remember that. His second half will be great. Pair Stafford with Palmer, Tannehill, Wilson, Kaepernick or RGIII. You will be glad you did. Then after wk 9 (DET bye wk) you can trade your backup QB for a valuable piece to your championship puzzle.

Aaron Rodgers : ADP 10.1 : SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference +4 : Analysis- Obviously a QB1. Bigger picture not as obvious. Rodgers plays @SEA wk 1, CAR wk 7 and @NO wk 8; a pretty tough few of games. Hear me out! back him up with Carson Palmer. Palmer through same stretch: Wk 1 SD, wk 7 @OAK, wk 8 PHI, wk 9 (GB bye wk) @DAL. On paper it makes a lot of sense. "Bench Rodgers for Carson Palmer?! This guys an idiot! I'm not even reading the rest of this crap!" I know this seems like insanity, but I never said this was gonna be easy. Stick with me though. It gets even better!

Andrew Luck : ADP 38.5 : SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference 0 : Analysis- I would not draft Luck as my primary QB. I would use him as a platoon. 2 QBs playing whichever one has the best matchup. Luck has a tough schedule this year. The QB that best fills the holes in Luck's schedule is RGIII or Carson Palmer. I would be happier waiting on QB at ADP 38.5 and grab up a RB like Spiller ADP 46 or Joique Bell ADP 70.2, or a WR like Fitzgerald ADP 38, or Keenan Allen ADP 45.4 or maybe Randall Cobb ADP 33.3 slips to you there. Better options is all I'm saying.

Alex Smith : ADP 125.2 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference +2 : Analysis- Please don't look a his +6 and say "Oh my...He hates Andrew Luck but...Alex Smith?...(some sort of snorting or shouting would go here). I do not endorse at all, not one bit, Alex Smith as your QB1. Not even a platoon. However, Smith is a solid backup. Stash him for bye week duty for Aaron Rodgers or Cam Newton.

Ryan Tannehill : ADP 135 : SOSPRO# +9 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference -3 : Analysis- (DRUM ROLL...DDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD TING) Here is my favorite player of the draft. Ryan Tannehill. You don't have to pay a lot to get him. He has the most favorable schedule in the league. Tannehill is the most intriguing player in his draft to me. If you are scared of waiting until pick 135 to get your starting QB. Then draft a guy like Matt Ryan ADP 89.4 and stash Tannehill on your bench as your backup. He will be your starter by week 6. Then you can trade Matt Ryan to fill out a position you lack a little somethin' in. Sky's the limit for Tannehill this year.

Tom Brady : ADP 62.9 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference -1 : Analysis- Not a lot to say about Tom Terrific. He will have a way better year than almost all of the QBs getting drafted before him. Brady has one small stretch of games wks 5-7. NE plays CIN, @BUF and NYJ. Back up Brady with Carson Palmer. Palmer plays @DEN, WAS and @OAK through that same stretch. Wk 10 (NE bye wk) Palmer plays STL. Should be a perfect match, with very little let down on those days. One of my favorite tandems to own this year. You can get 3 or 4 great position players in first rds and still get top 5 QB in 5th or 6th rd.

Drew Brees : ADP 13 : SOSPRO# 0 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# -4 : Difference -8 : Analysis- Let me preface this analysis with this: I know I am going to lose some of you on this one. Everyone is so high on Brees. I have seen him go #1 in some drafts. I wouldn't draft him. His price is too high this year. Late second, Early third is soonest I would consider him. Brees is going to have a decent start. He will drop off in the second half of the season. Brees will still finish in the top 4-6 QBs this year. But he's not going to finish a mile ahead of Brady, or Cutler, or Rivers. He will beat them but he will not be worth the price of a 1st or early 2nd rd pick. Money in the bank: the combo of Brady ADP 62.9 and Demarius Thomas ADP 14.1, will be better than the combo of Brees ADP 13 and Torrey Smith ADP 64.9. I know who I would rather have.

Nick Foles : ADP 60.6 : SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# -1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference +4 : Analysis- Similar to Cam Newton, Tony Romo, and Jay Cutler. Foles will be a big buy low candidate for the second half, but with less upside than those three. PHI plays SEA wk 14 (first rd of fantasy playoffs in most leagues). If you do draft him, the best backups to have are Kaepernick, Wilson or Tannehill. They match the tough parts of Foles schedule the best. There are better options this year. Nick Foles will not be this years Nick Foles. If you know what I mean.

Phillip Rivers : ADP 106.6 : SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +3 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference 0 : Analysis- What does a guy have to do to get some respect around here??? Three question marks. Rivers was the 6th QB last year. 6th! This year with a similarly easy schedule...14th!?!? No respect around here. Rivers has a tough couple of games to start and to end the season. Ryan Tannehill (yeah him again) is the perfect backup for Rivers and you will have a top 5 QB waiting until the 9th or 10th rd. Although if that's my plan I probably go get him a couple rds sooner.

Russell Wilson : ADP 71.5 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference -5 : Analysis- This is the start of the low-volume QBs. Wilson does not throw a lot of passes. At least he hasn't yet. However, I believe Lynch is in for a down year. I'm not the only one. I also think a HEALTHY Percy Harvin could turn into one of the best receivers in the league this year. Which means...Wilson will throw more. Not Stafford like pass attempts or anything, but definitely more. His ADP is pretty spot on. Second half will be a little tougher as schedule gets harder and the pressure to try and repeat will begin to kick in. I would back him up with Romo or Tannehill. If you can't draft Romo as your backup; consider trying to trade Wilson for Romo mid season before the SB curse kicks in.

Colin Kaepernick : ADP 63.2 : SOSPRO# +7 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +6 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference -5 : Analysis- I'm gonna save a few keystrokes here. See: Russell Wilson. Just change Percy Harvin to Michael Crabtree and change Marshawn Lynch to Frank Gore and friends. All the rest exactly the same (except for the SB curse part. Sorry SF.) right down to the backups.

Sam Bradford : ADP 170 : SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +4 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +4 : Difference 0 : Analysis- Sam. SAm. SAM! Sorry for shouting there. Bradford is just one of the most frustrating fantasy guys in recent memory. So much potential, so little success. He will have a good year this year. Schedule is very passer friendly. Finally looks 100% healthy. Looks real accurate. Nice touch. Bradford does have a bit of a bumpy schedule in the middle weeks. RGIII is the best suited tandom to go with Bradford. The two of them should be a pretty substantial 1-2 combination. Potentially of course. Have faith...I do.

Jake Locker : ADP 170 : SOSPRO# +2 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +1 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +1 : Difference 0 : Analysis- Nice backup/QB2 value. Going undrafted in most leagues. Not a ton of value. If you happened to draft Cam Newton, Locker matches up favorably to the tough parts of Newton's schedule. 2nd half of season is slightly easier for Locker than 1st. Possible deep sleeper here.

and last but certainly not least...

Robert Griffin III : ADP 56.8 : SOSPRO# +8 : Wk 1-9 SOSPRO# +5 : Wk 10-17 SOSPRO# +3 : Difference -2 : Analysis- I believe RGIII is due for a bounce back year this season. Last year he was hurt, I don't care what anyone says. He has his swag back. Finally got to work the word "swag" into my blog! WAS got him some new weapons. I think Jordan Reed is going to fight Jimmy Graham for the top TE spot this year. RGIII will be productive and consistent. His ideal backup is Sam Bradford, who goes undrafted in most leagues, so you can get your defense and/or kicker a round early and take Bradford in the last rd if you like. RGIII is one of my favorite bargains of the draft this year. Right there with Tom Brady for me.

Names left off my list because they are not worth drafting: Joe Flacco; Andy Dalton (I know, #5 QB last yr. Not this yr!!); Ben Roethlisberger; any TB, MIN, JAX, HOU, or OAK quarterback; Geno Smith or Mike Vick (although the 1st half schedule is favorable for a backup/bye week...NO, NO, NO!! It's the Jets! Never mind.); Not Manziel, not Hoyer (I would not draft them with a fox...); and last and least Eli Manning. NOT EVEN IF THERE WAS A FIRE!!!!!

Hope this helped out a little in your decision for QB this season. Its one of the deepest I can remember at QB. Potentially of course.

Lets talk 2013 NFL fantasy football draft

      I would like to begin this segment of the 2013 NFL fantasy football draft with quarterback talk. There are many philosophies about what is needed at QB. I am going with one of two options. I will not draft a QB in rd 1. This year round two is even off limits for a QB. You have to get a top RB or 2 in the first two rds. At least. A top RB and then top WR. One option is: In rd 3 I am taking Peyton Manning. I believe he will be the top scoring fantasy QB next season. If he is not available in rd 3 I will take Cam newton. The other option is a more risky one but one worth taking in my book. If I don't go Manning or Newton in rd 3, I will wait till rd 8 or 9 and draft Tony Romo. Tony Romo has the second easiest schedule as far as his opponents pass defenses go. Second only to Peyton Manning. I know Romo is hard to trust but he scores. He finished in the top 10 again last year and he and Dez Bryant (who we will talk more about later) ended the season in beast mode last year. They single handedly won me my league in last years playoffs. Although some of my other drafted sleepers really helped like Randle Cobb and Doug Martin (drafted Martin in the 4th rd last year and Cobb in the 6th). But I digress. If you have a big option left to draft in the 3rd rd like MJD, go with Romo late and back him up with a Palmer or Rivers; both have potential to be top 10 guys next year if they and their teams play up to potential. Trust me.

      Now to RB. I have a clear cut opinion on this position, and you probably will disagree vehemently with me on it. I do NOT like Adrian Peterson to have a year even close to last year. The Vikings have one of the toughest schedules for rushing the football. Only 2 of their 16 games will be against bottom 10 rush defenses. Last year was special and those people who drafted him early and rolled the dice were rewarded handsomely for their faith in AD. I am going in a different rout I have narrowed my first rd choice to 4 backs. I value them in this order: Arian Foster, Doug Martin, MJD, and Chris Johnson. I know those last two are a little bit of head scratchers. Hear me out! Both are clearly the best players in their team, and both organizations have done a great job this off season to put help around and most importantly IN FRONT of them. In the case of Chris Johnson, some people see Shonn Greene as a hindrance to CJ2K's scoring ability. I see him as a blessing for this reason; Johnson is not a pounder anyway, he scores on 15-20 yd scampers not 3 yd plunges. The past few years he has been asked to be the pounder and it has cost him late in games. Greene will help keep CJ from taking such a beating. Foster and Martin will be first rounders, and if they are both gone by your pick I would take a flier on Lynch, he should be pretty productive again, even though he did take a pounding last year with his style of running. MJD and Johnson should be there in rds 2 or 3. To fill out your backfield you do not have to draft RB heavy in the early rds. Wait till rds 5-7 and pick up a couple of the following backs: Montee Ball, Chris Ivory, Lamar Miller, Vick Ballard and LeVeon Bell. Two of these guys should put some good bye week and flex options at your disposal. At least 1 of these 4 are going to end up a top 10 back. I would not keep more than 4 RBs on my squad. WRs carry way more scoring potential. 

      Speaking of wide outs here we go. I am placing Demarius Thomas at the top of my list. With Welker and Eric Decker not far behind. The Denver WRs will face only 1 top 10 pass defense all year and that is week 1. Thomas is a 3rd rd pick but worth taking in the 2nd if you covet one of the QBs I spoke of earlier. Welker is a 3-4 rounder and Decker is around the 5th. I value Welker and Decker pretty close together so Decker would be your better value in rd 5 or 6. You are going to want at least 1 of these 3 guys in your squad. My next tier of WRs is small, in fact it is two guys. I am targeting Dez Bryant and Dwayne Bowe as my other two WRs. Dez is a second rd pick and I will be targeting him with my second rd pick in every draft this year. Bowe is a different story. He is a special receiver and Alex Smith is going to be better than anticipated. Bowe will be his favorite target. Besides being in my top 5 receivers, Bowe is also a great value in the late 4th to late 5th rd. My last starter at WR is my sleeper to finish in the top 10 WR next year: Denarius Moore. He is a available in the late rounds and will be a big scorer next year.

      Tight End is an easy one this year. Forget about Graham or Gronk. Forget about Hernandez or Witten. Nope, not even Pitta or Rudolph. I have my eye on two sets of TEs. You want one from each tier. Top tier is Tony Gonzalez and Vernon Davis. I know Gonzo is believable but V Davis. Yes! Davis was a beast in the playoffs last year. I know his last 5 games of the regular season were rough....and I mean ROUGH. He and Kaepernick really got on the same page in the playoffs and that will carry over into this season. Both Gonzo and Davis will be available in the 7th or 8th rd. snag one of them there. Then with a late rd pick grab up Greg Olsen or Zack Miller as a backup. I think both Olsen and Miller have a shot at being this years Pitta and Rudolph.

      For defense I have a short list. I will be drafting Cincinatti or Cleveland for my DST this coming season. Heck! I might draft them both and play the one with the best matchup each week. They both have the easiest schedules in'13. All the other defenses will cost you too high of a draft pick. SD is a sleeper to have another top 10 year possible top 5.

      Kicker is down to two as well. Matt Prater is my top choice. If he is gone by the time you draft your kicker Novak from SD is my second choice. Both should serve you well. On their bye week you have two choices. Drop them and get another kicker for the rest of the year or drop another player and get a 1 week fill in. I would not be against the first option as long as you can get Connor Barth from TB. He was my drafted kicker last year. Since TB had a week 4 bye I just carried two kickers until week 5 then dropped the other and rode Barth out. Turned out to be a good move.

      I hope this helped you see a little bit what I see for this upcoming season. To see how to fill out the bench of your roster check out my other post on the SOSPRO ratings it will give you the draft value of all your WR2s and 3s. I recommend drafting as many Redskin and Charger WRs you can to stash on the bench. They both have very favorable schedules. Also look out for Donnie Avery WR for KC, Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin and DeShaun Jackson; they are 4 of my sleepers to break into the top 15 WR for next year. All are late round, or in Avery's case largely undrafted, picks and worth stashing.

      Good luck to all in the upcoming fantasy football season and my all your drafts go exactly as planned! (We all know at least one of our top choices will get sniped with the pick right before our own!) But we can hope right??!!

2013 NFL Tight End Draft Class rankings, analysis and fantasy football impact

      This blog will be about the upcoming 2013 NFL tight end draft class. The class is fairly deep, however, history tells us very few rookie tight ends really have a large impact in fantasy football. There are a few that really intrigue me. I will give the rankings for the top 20 TE rookies-to-be. I look at 3 main areas when grading a tight end. 40yd time shows speed, vertical jump shows the ability to go up and get the "jump ball", and arm length adds a few inches to that jumping ability. This combination of tools are what the modern TE needs to prosper, ala Gronk and Graham. Below are the rankings based on the data I reviewed. The six highlighted players are the ones I will go into further detail about. They are the ones I see as having the best chance of being fantasy relevant next year, provided they land in a good situation. The number next to the player's name is my score for them. The best a player could score is 3. The closer the number is to 3 the better.

1. Chris Gragg 13
2. Vance McDonald 13
3. Tyler Eifert 28
4. Travis Kelce 33
5. Dion Simms 34
6. Jake Stoneburner 38
7. Gavin Escobar 39
8. Levine Toilolo 39
9. T.J. Knowles 42
10. Lucas Reed 44
11. Nick Kasa 47
12. Ryan Otten 48
13. Justice Cunningham 49
14. Joseph Fauria 50
15. Jordan Reed 51
16. Zach Ertz 54
17. Zach Sudfeld 56
18. Mychal Rivera 60
19. Jack Doyle 81
20. Michael Williams 84

      The top 7 guys on this list really have a great shot at being fantasy relevant next year. Especially in this day of 2 TE sets. Of my measurables (40yd time, vertical jump and arm span) these guys ranked in the top ten in 2 of 3 areas. Vance McDonald actually finished top ten in all 3 measurables (3rd in 40yd, 6th in vertical jump and 4th in arm span). At 6'3", Chris Gragg is the shortest player in the top 20 (tied with 3 others). Were it not for this, which held him to 11th in arm span, Gragg would be my highest prospect in this years TE class. Gragg actually had the fastest 40yd time, 4.46. He also had the highest vertical leap, 37.50 in, a full 2 inches higher than the next closest prospect. Either Gragg or McDonald should make a huge splash in the NFL next year. The next guy on the list is Tyler Eifert, and he has been well heralded as a pro prospect so I will not go to far into him. The other guy to keep an eye on is Jake Stoneburner. Besides having the best football name in this draft class, and once drafted the best name in the NFL, Stoneburner scored very well in the 40yd and vertical. Stoneburner had the 4th fastest 40yd and 5th highest vertical leap. He scored surprisingly low in arm span for a guy 6'4", 29th place. Not a major concern with his leaping ability.
      One guy to look warily at is Zach Ertz. He scored much lower in all the drills than my other top prospects. 8th in 40yd time in OK; but 13th in vertical leap and 33rd in arm length are a real concern. I would really look past him if I needed a TE2. Ertz's down side really seems to out way his upside.     
      If I were drafting a TE next year, I don't know that I would take any of these guys as my TE1. I would definitely take any of the 7 highlighted guys as my TE2, especially Chris Gragg, Vance McDonald or Tyler Eifert. Of my top 7 keep your eye on Jake Stoneburner as a deep sleeper next year. He could sneak up and be the top rookie tight end next year.

2013 NFL Running Back Draft Class rankings, analysis and fantasy football impact

      Today I will look at the upcoming 2013 NFL running back draft class. This years draft is not a very deep class. In fact, there are only a few clear cut prospects that have been projected as possible starters in the league for 2013. These are Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard and possibly Marcus Lattimore. I would like to offer a little insight into which of the other backs have a good chance of surprising some teams by coming in as late round picks and making an immediate impact. I look at three different areas of combine performance when judging a backs potential. Obviously a back needs speed, but he also needs strength and explosiveness. To measure these we look at 40yd time, bench press and broad jump scores. I have ranked my top 15 backs coming out of this years draft. I have left out Eddie Lacy and Marcus Lattimore since they did not participate in the combine. I would also go out on a limb and say they both would probably be, when completely healthy, the top 2 backs in the draft. The list will go in order of the combined 40yd, bench press and broad jump scores. The best a back can score is 3. The closer the number is to 3 the better their combine performance.

1. Michael Ford 12
2. Knile Davis 13
3. Christine Michael 13
4. Kenjon Barner 23
5. Zac Stacy 38
6. Cierre Wood 39
7. Giovani Bernard 40
8. Onterio McCalebb 44
9. Kerwynn Williams 48
10. Jonathon Franklin 50
11. Mike Gillislee 52
12. Le'Veon Bell 54
13. Rex Burkhead 59
14. Andre Ellington 63
15. Joseph Randle 70

      The first thing you will notice is the 5 names in yellow. These 5 young men have been branded with having off field issues and/or attitude problems. I would agree to some extent, but put in the right position with the right coach these guys could shape up and be very productive. The first 3 on the list, Michael Ford, Knile Davis and Christine Michael all finished in the top 10 in all three combine areas mentioned in the previous paragraph. Speed is measured by 40yd time, Strength is measured by bench reps and explosiveness is measured by broad jump. Both Ford and Davis each had a 1st place in one of the three areas (Ford-broad jump, Davis-Bench press). Davis was also second in the 40yd dash. Christine Michael is the one I would take out of these three. Michael finished 8th in the 40yd (4.43s), 3rd in the bench press (27 reps) and 2nd in the broad jump (125 in). He lacks a little in the height at 5'10", but at 220 lbs he is a beast. Michael has to me the perfect blend of experience (he is senior 3 yr starter; would have been 4 yr but he got benched for some attitude problems), speed, power and explosiveness. If there is a back not named Lacy or Lattimore that has the best chance of having a Doug Martin like rookie fantasy impact it is Christine Michael.
      Another guy on my short list of impact backs is Onterio McCalebb. This guy had the fastest combine 40yd time and the 11th best broad jump. A great combo of speed and explosiveness. The one area of concern with McCalebb is his size. At 5-10, 165 lbs he is very slight to be an every down back. While there is no legal way to help him get taller, there is plenty of weight room work that can pack lbs on him. If he could put on 20-25 lbs of muscle during OTAs and training camp, McCalebb could be a Darren Sproles like option for a team looking for that type of explosive play maker. Definitely worth a look on fantasy draft day if he winds up in the right situation.
      All of this years backs seem to have some sort of question mark coming out of college. The main guys to look for besides Lacy, Lattimore and Bernard are: Christine Michael and Onterio McCalebb. I would draft any of these guys late and stash on my bench. They could prove to be very helpful in a late season push towards your fantasy championship.

2013 NFL Wide Reciver Draft Class rankings, analysis and fantasy football impact

      Today's blog is going to take a look at the upcoming 2013 NFL draft. I will specifically be looking at the Wide Receivers. I will analyze which will be good bets to have a fantasy impact this year and which ones to be wary of. The receiver class is fairly deep this year. With so many teams going with a more pass heavy approach there are several receivers that could have a decent impact as rookies next year. The things I look at to make a strong receiver in the NFL are speed, hands and leaping ability. A lot of the receivers at the combine with the fastest times did not do so well in the intangible areas that make a great receiver. It is all about what you want.  Speed above all else and you could end up with a Heyward-Bey like situation. If you go for the best combination of skills and intangibles you could end up with an A.J. Green situation. I would rather have the later. I also do not worry about attitude problems in receivers. They are all a bit diva-ish nowadays. So here are my updated top 25 wide receiver prospect rankings based on what I believe makes a great receiver. The number next to the WRs name is the quotient I use to measure their NFL potential. The smaller the number the better the prospect. The best a WR can score is 3. Scores over 100 are pretty low. A few may surprise you.
      **Remember these are not ranking when a guy is gonna go in the draft, this tells you which guys have the best potential to make a team and play a relevant role. Which players will have the best chance to have a fantasy impact.**

1. Rodney Smith 45
2. Justin Hunter 50
3. Cordarrelle Patterson 76
4. Stedman Bailey 59
5. Tavarres King 59
6. Corey Fuller 70
7. Aaron Mellette 71
8. Josh Boyce 73
9. Deandre Hopkins 74
10. Chris Harper 80
11. Da'Rick Rogers 83
12. Denard Robinson 85
13. Markus Wheaton 85
14. Kenny Stills 90
15. Tavon Austin 90
16. Robert Woods 90
17. Ryan Swope 98
18. Marquise Goodwin 100+
19. Keenan Allen 100+
20. Quinton Patton 100+
21. Aaron Dobson 100+
22. Cobi Hamilton 100+
23. Conner Vernon 100+
24. Terrance Williams 100+
25. Ace Sanders 100+

      Of the 9 speedsters on this list (9 of the top 10 combine 40 times) only 4 are in my top 10 prospects. The other 5 consisting of Goodwin 18, Austin 15, Swope 17, Stills 14 and Robinson 12 were in the top 10 40yd times at this years combine in that order. Other than Swope and Robinson who did well in the Vertical (7th and 9th best jump respectively) no one else finished inside the top 15 in either vertical or hand size. The other 3 averaged 28th vertical jump. All 5 of the top speedsters averaged 72nd in hand size. Speed is not everything.
      The guys I want to talk about are Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Rodney Smith and Stedman Bailey. Of all my prospects, these are my top 4 to make an impact with their respective teams next year. All 4 finished in the top 34 40yd times. Patterson and Hunter finished in the top 10, Smith was 28th and Bailey was 34th. Remember I said speed is not everything, but that is still not bad when combined with the next stats. Patterson and Hunter finished in the top 5 in the vertical jump. Hunter 1st and Patterson 5th. Bailey and Smith ranked 14th and 15th respectively in the vertical jump. When is comes to hand size the ranks go as follows: Smith 2nd, Bailey 11th, Hunter 39th and Patterson 65th. I am kind of giving Patterson a pass on his low ranking for hand size. The difference between Patterson (9 in. and Justin Hunter (9.38 in) was just .38 inches, less than half an inch. Compare that to Rodney Smith (10.38 in) and Stedman Bailey (9.88). These guys are physical freaks. I like Patterson 6'2", Hunter 6'4" and Smith 6'5" because they also bring great size to the equation. My personal favorite is Stedman Bailey. At 5'10" he is not a huge guy, but in this 3 receiver set heavy NFL, every team is looking for that Wes Welker/Victor Cruz like guy to fill the slot. Bailey will fill that role perfectly on the right team. He could come in on day one as a #1 slot and be very productive. Look at the numbers the current best slot guys are putting up. If Stedman Bailey puts up half of Welker's numbers he will have somewhere in the neighborhood of 69 catches, 3 TDs and over 650 yds receiving. Not bad for a rookie and I expect it to be better than that.
      Drafting a rookie receiver in fantasy football is a tough thing to count on. The good thing is if these guys land on the perfect team for them, they will still not be a high draft pick (with the exception of Patterson, possibly a mid rd pick). Pick these guys up in the later rds and stash them on your bench. They will help you win a championship later in the season when they establish themselves.

Top 200 SOSPRO rankings

A WORD ABOUT THIS TOP 200 LIST

 **Last updated 5/4/2013**             
             
              This list is not meant to tell you who to draft, but rather what position to draft your players. Every fantasy football player has his/her own method for drafting their team. This is meant to be a tool for gauging which players have the best value for their draft position. My rankings rank players based on their ability to score maximum fantasy points. For example, let’s look at 4 quarterbacks: Peyton, Brady, Rivers and Romo. In Matthew Berry’s top 200 for 2013 (the newest April version) he has these 4 ranked;

Peyton 29

Brady 20

Rivers 140

Romo 89

                Christopher Harris did rankings with his top 50 for 2013 (January version). He has the same four players ranked;

Peyton 21

Brady 9

Rivers unranked

Romo 43

                These rankings tell you where in the upcoming fantasy drafts each of these players may be drafted. In standard 12 team leagues this would put a draft position for each of these players as follows:

Peyton late 2^nd rd- mid 3^rd rd

Brady 2nd rd 

Rivers 12^th rd

Romo averages out to a 6^th rd pick

                This info will be necessary to use my rankings. Let’s look at the same four players’ SOSPRO rankings.

Peyton 1              Brady 34               Rivers 12              Romo 5

                These are the SOSPRO rankings. Using the projected draft positions we figured out earlier combined with these SOSPRO rankings we get the following information. Manning is a pretty good value in the late 3^rd to early 4^th rd as he has the best schedule to score fantasy points against this coming season. Brady is not as good a value as he is ranked 2 rds ahead of Peyton while having a schedule more difficult than 13 other QBs. Rivers is the biggest anomaly. I have him ranked 12 based on his SOSPRO numbers. This does not mean I think he is the 4^th best QB in the NFL, behind only Peyton, Romo and Newton. This means based on the upcoming schedule he has the 4^th easiest path to score maximum fantasy pts. Will he be the number 4 scoring QB next year? Probably not. What you can get out of this ranking is what I am taking out of it; Rivers will be a great 10^th rd pick in your draft as a QB2. I will be picking him up late and stashing on the bench for my starters bye week and hope that he actually plays up to his potential. Would I draft him as my starter based on my SOSPRO projection? NO. If I am a 2 QB player and use the match ups to decide which of my to QBs to play, am I drafting him? YES. Then there is Romo. I have him ranked number 5. As a projected 4^th rd, possibly late 5^th rd pick, Romo has the best upside for a fantasy starter. Romo has the second easiest path to scoring maximum fantasy pts next season. As a 4^th or 5^th rd pick, you should be able to draft your starting QB (Romo) in rd 4 or 5, and stock up on WR and RB in the first 3 rds. I hope you can see how to use my tool to help you choose which players to draft and where.

                Here are my complete Top 200 Fantasy Football Rankings for 2013 based on my SOSPRO ranking system. The number after each player is their SOSPRO number. In the event their is only a team name and a position on a line, it shows where a starter is not yet determined and the ranking will apply to the eventual starter. Highlighted names will be reserved for free agents who have not found a home yet. Where they land could move them up or down a little but should be relatively close to where they are right now.

1. Peyton Manning QB 42
2. Demarius Thomas WR 39
3. Eric Decker WR 37
4. Wes Welker WR 37
5. Tony Romo QB 36
6. Dez Bryant WR 35
7. Arian Foster RB 33
8. Cam Newton QB 30
9. Dwayne Bowe WR 30
10. Doug Martin RB 30
11. M Jones-Drew RB 30
12. Phillip Rivers QB 30
13. Miles Austin WR 30
14. Chris Johnson RB 28
15. Andrew Luck QB 28
16. Matt Schaub QB 28
17. Carson Palmer QB 28
18. Robert Griffin III QB 27
19. Tony Gonzales TE 27
20. Raiders QB 27
21. Alex Smith QB 27
22. Donnie Avery WR 27
23. Marshawn Lynch RB 26
24. Calvin Johnson WR 26
25. Frank Gore RB 26
26. Russel Wilson QB 26
27. Matt Ryan QB 26
28. Montee Ball RB 26
29. Vernon Davis TE 25
30. Denarius Moore WR 25
31. CJ Spiller RB 24
32. Stevan Ridley RB 24
33. Collin Kaepernick QB 24
34. Tom Brady QB 24
35. Aaron Rodgers QB 24
36. Jimmy Graham TE 24
37. Eli Manning QB 24
38. Lamar Miller RB 24
39. Santana Moss WR 24
40. Victor Cruz WR 23
41. Greg Olsen TE 23
42. Zack Miller TE 23
43. Anthony Armstrong WR 23
44. Jamaal Charles RB 22
45. Brandon Marshall WR 22
46. Trent Richardson RB 22
47. Pierre Garcon WR 22
48. Danario Alexander WR 22
49. Leonard Hankerson WR 22
50. Vick Ballard RB 22
51. Julio Jones WR 21
52. Rob Gronkowski TE 21
53. Roddy White WR 21
54. Chris Ivory RB 21
55. James Jones WR 21
56. Jeremy Maclin WR 21
57. Andy Dalton QB 21
58. Le'Veon Bell RB 21
59. Darren McFadden RB 21
60. Drew Brees QB 20
61. Randall Cobb WR 20
62. AJ Green WR 20
63. Matt Stafford QB 20
64. Steve Smith (CAR) WR 20
65. Hakeem Nicks WR 20
66. Ryan Tannehill QB 20
67. Ben Roethlisberger QB 20
68. Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener TE 20
69. Adrian Peterson RB 19
70. Cecil Shorts WR 19
71. Percy Harvin WR 19
72. Larry Fitzgerald WR 19
73. Mike Vick QB 19
74. Josh Freeman QB 19
75. DeSean Jackson WR 19
76. Reggie Wayne WR 19
77. Michael Crabtree WR 19
78. Malcolm Floyd WR 19
79. Antonio Gates TE 19
80. Jay Cutler QB 19
81. Jake Locker QB 19
82. Nate Burleson WR 19
83. Rod Streater WR 19
84. Steven Jackson RB 18
85. Andre Johnson WR 18
86. Owen Daniels TE 18
87. Jason Witten TE 18
88. Darren Sproles RB 18
89. Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis RB 18
90. Matt Forte RB 18
91. Jordy Nelson WR 18
92. T Y Hilton WR 18
93. Giovani Bernard RB 18
94. Alfred Morris RB 17
95. Eddy Lacy RB 17
96. Aaron Hernandez TE 17
97. Rashard Mendenhall RB 17
98. Ryan Mathews RB 17
99. Blaine Gabbert QB 17
100. Danny Amendola WR 16
101. Anquan Boldin WR 16
102. Justin Blackmon WR 16
103. Bandon Myers TE 16
104. Ahmad Bradshaw RB 16
105. Darrius Heyward-Bey WR 16
106. Sydney Rice WR 16
107. Golden Tate WR 16
108. Vincent Brown WR 16
109. Jared Cook TE 16
110. D'Angelo Williams RB 16
111. Jonathon Stewart RB 16
112. CIN Bengals DST 16
113. Brandon Lafell WR 16
114. Dolphins TE 16 **take your pick**
115. Joe Flacco QB 15
116. Pierre Thomas RB 15
117. CLE Browns DST 15
118. Isaiah Pead/Darryl Richardson RB 15
119. Alshon Jefferey WR 15
120. Jacob Tamme/Joel Dreesen TE 15
121. Jermichael Finley TE 15
122. Ray Rice RB 14
123. LeSean McCoy RB 14
124. Dennis Pitta TE 14
125. Torrey Smith WR 14
126. Mike Wallace WR 14
127. Heath Miller TE 14
128. Brian Hartline WR 14
129. Domenik Hixon WR 14
130. PIT Steelers DST 14
131. Sam Bradford QB 14
132. Tavon Austin WR 14
133. Marques Colston WR 13
134. Antonio Brown WR 13
135. Brandon Lloyd WR 13
136. David Wilson RB 13
137. BAL Ravens DST 13
138. Marcedes Lewis TE 13
139. Rueben Randle WR 13
140. Browns QB 13
141. Andrew Hawkins WR 13
142. Lance Moore WR 12
143. Stevie Johnson WR 12
144. Brent Celek TE 12
145. Brandon Gibson WR 12
146. EJ Manuel QB 12
147. Brandon Pettigrew TE 12
148. Josh Gordon WR 12
149. Davon Bess WR 12
150. Vincent Jackson WR 11
151. Emmanuel Sanders WR 11
152. Steadman Bailey WR 11
153. HOU Texans DST 11
154. NE Patriots DST 11
155. Rob Housler TE 11
156. Julien Edelman WR 11
157. IND Colts DST 11
158. Robert Woods WR 11
159. Plaxico Burress WR 11
160. Mark Sanchez QB 11  **if he is the starter :)**
161. Greg Jennings WR 10
162. Reggie Bush RB 10
163. DEN Broncos DST 10
164. Martellus Bennett TE 10
165. Michael Williams (TB) WR 10
166. Jacoby Jones WR 10
167. BUF Bills DST 10
168. Tyler Eifert TE 10
169. Vance MacDonald TE 10
170. Jeremy Kerley WR 10
171. Santonio Holmes WR 10
172. CHI Bears DST 9
173. NYJ Jets DST 9
174. Dustin Keller TE 9
175. TEN Titans DST 9
176. Fred Davis TE 9
177. SEA Seahawks DST 8
178. Demarco Murray RB 8
179. SD Chargers DST 8
180. Kenny Britt WR 8
181. Chris Givens WR 8
182. Justin Hunter WR 8
183. Nate Washington WR 8
184. Kendall Wright WR 8
185. MIA Dophins DST 8
186. DET Lions DST 8
187. Donald Nelson WR 8
188. Andre Roberts WR 8
189. Brian Quick WR 8
190. Jerome Simpson WR 8
191. Matt Prater K 7
192. SF 49ers DST 7
193. Nick Novak K 7
194. Delaney Walker TE 7
195. Scott Chandler TE 7
196. MIN Vikings DST 7
197. JAX Jaguars DST 7
198. OAK Raiders DST 7
199. Ted Ginn JR WR 7
200. Joshua Cribbs WR 6

First Fantasy Football blog of many

      First fantasy football blog of my career. I would like to start with a piece I have been working on for a while now. Basically it has been forming since the end of last fantasy football season. I have been working on a draft day tool called the SOSPRO number. Basically this is a number used to describe a players potential to score fantasy points at a maximum level. This number is not a ranking in the sense it tells you a players rank compared to another player like all the ESPN and YAHOO ranks do. This is a tool to help you decide where to select a player based on his draft day value. My system will show you which guys will be a great steal in rounds 4 or 5, as well as show you the folly of wasting a 1st or 2nd rd pick on a guy. Here is my list as of today's transactions. This should be fairly accurate as almost all major free agents and QBs are settled down now. It also does not rank any players from the current draft class. This shouldn't be a big deal though as most of them would be non-impact players this year; with the exception of a few WRs and maybe a RB or two. Rookies are always a gamble and really it is up to the drafter where they will go as all projections are completely speculatory. My next blog will contain the document I have been creating with my top 200 players based on their SOSPRO draft value number. Thanks for checking out my blog and hope to see you back!