Saturday, April 6, 2013

2013 NFL Running Back Draft Class rankings, analysis and fantasy football impact

      Today I will look at the upcoming 2013 NFL running back draft class. This years draft is not a very deep class. In fact, there are only a few clear cut prospects that have been projected as possible starters in the league for 2013. These are Eddie Lacy, Giovani Bernard and possibly Marcus Lattimore. I would like to offer a little insight into which of the other backs have a good chance of surprising some teams by coming in as late round picks and making an immediate impact. I look at three different areas of combine performance when judging a backs potential. Obviously a back needs speed, but he also needs strength and explosiveness. To measure these we look at 40yd time, bench press and broad jump scores. I have ranked my top 15 backs coming out of this years draft. I have left out Eddie Lacy and Marcus Lattimore since they did not participate in the combine. I would also go out on a limb and say they both would probably be, when completely healthy, the top 2 backs in the draft. The list will go in order of the combined 40yd, bench press and broad jump scores. The best a back can score is 3. The closer the number is to 3 the better their combine performance.

  1. Michael Ford 12
  2. Knile Davis 13
  3. Christine Michael 13
  4. Kenjon Barner 23
  5. Zac Stacy 38
  6. Cierre Wood 39
  7. Giovani Bernard 40
  8. Onterio McCalebb 44
  9. Kerwynn Williams 48
  10. Jonathon Franklin 50
  11. Mike Gillislee 52
  12. Le'Veon Bell 54
  13. Rex Burkhead 59
  14. Andre Ellington 63
  15. Joseph Randle 70
      The first thing you will notice is the 5 names in yellow. These 5 young men have been branded with having off field issues and/or attitude problems. I would agree to some extent, but put in the right position with the right coach these guys could shape up and be very productive. The first 3 on the list, Michael Ford, Knile Davis and Christine Michael all finished in the top 10 in all three combine areas mentioned in the previous paragraph. Speed is measured by 40yd time, Strength is measured by bench reps and explosiveness is measured by broad jump. Both Ford and Davis each had a 1st place in one of the three areas (Ford-broad jump, Davis-Bench press). Davis was also second in the 40yd dash. Christine Michael is the one I would take out of these three. Michael finished 8th in the 40yd (4.43s), 3rd in the bench press (27 reps) and 2nd in the broad jump (125 in). He lacks a little in the height at 5'10", but at 220 lbs he is a beast. Michael has to me the perfect blend of experience (he is senior 3 yr starter; would have been 4 yr but he got benched for some attitude problems), speed, power and explosiveness. If there is a back not named Lacy or Lattimore that has the best chance of having a Doug Martin like rookie fantasy impact it is Christine Michael.
      Another guy on my short list of impact backs is Onterio McCalebb. This guy had the fastest combine 40yd time and the 11th best broad jump. A great combo of speed and explosiveness. The one area of concern with McCalebb is his size. At 5-10, 165 lbs he is very slight to be an every down back. While there is no legal way to help him get taller, there is plenty of weight room work that can pack lbs on him. If he could put on 20-25 lbs of muscle during OTAs and training camp, McCalebb could be a Darren Sproles like option for a team looking for that type of explosive play maker. Definitely worth a look on fantasy draft day if he winds up in the right situation.
      All of this years backs seem to have some sort of question mark coming out of college. The main guys to look for besides Lacy, Lattimore and Bernard are: Christine Michael and Onterio McCalebb. I would draft any of these guys late and stash on my bench. They could prove to be very helpful in a late season push towards your fantasy championship.

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