Saturday, April 6, 2013

2013 NFL Tight End Draft Class rankings, analysis and fantasy football impact

      This blog will be about the upcoming 2013 NFL tight end draft class. The class is fairly deep, however, history tells us very few rookie tight ends really have a large impact in fantasy football. There are a few that really intrigue me. I will give the rankings for the top 20 TE rookies-to-be. I look at 3 main areas when grading a tight end. 40yd time shows speed, vertical jump shows the ability to go up and get the "jump ball", and arm length adds a few inches to that jumping ability. This combination of tools are what the modern TE needs to prosper, ala Gronk and Graham. Below are the rankings based on the data I reviewed. The six highlighted players are the ones I will go into further detail about. They are the ones I see as having the best chance of being fantasy relevant next year, provided they land in a good situation. The number next to the player's name is my score for them. The best a player could score is 3. The closer the number is to 3 the better.

  1. Chris Gragg 13
  2. Vance McDonald 13
  3. Tyler Eifert 28
  4. Travis Kelce 33
  5. Dion Simms 34
  6. Jake Stoneburner 38
  7. Gavin Escobar 39
  8. Levine Toilolo 39
  9. T.J. Knowles 42
  10. Lucas Reed 44
  11. Nick Kasa 47
  12. Ryan Otten 48
  13. Justice Cunningham 49
  14. Joseph Fauria 50
  15. Jordan Reed 51
  16. Zach Ertz 54
  17. Zach Sudfeld 56
  18. Mychal Rivera 60
  19. Jack Doyle 81
  20. Michael Williams 84
      The top 7 guys on this list really have a great shot at being fantasy relevant next year. Especially in this day of 2 TE sets. Of my measurables (40yd time, vertical jump and arm span) these guys ranked in the top ten in 2 of 3 areas. Vance McDonald actually finished top ten in all 3 measurables (3rd in 40yd, 6th in vertical jump and 4th in arm span). At 6'3", Chris Gragg is the shortest player in the top 20 (tied with 3 others). Were it not for this, which held him to 11th in arm span, Gragg would be my highest prospect in this years TE class. Gragg actually had the fastest 40yd time, 4.46. He also had the highest vertical leap, 37.50 in, a full 2 inches higher than the next closest prospect. Either Gragg or McDonald should make a huge splash in the NFL next year. The next guy on the list is Tyler Eifert, and he has been well heralded as a pro prospect so I will not go to far into him. The other guy to keep an eye on is Jake Stoneburner. Besides having the best football name in this draft class, and once drafted the best name in the NFL, Stoneburner scored very well in the 40yd and vertical. Stoneburner had the 4th fastest 40yd and 5th highest vertical leap. He scored surprisingly low in arm span for a guy 6'4", 29th place. Not a major concern with his leaping ability.
      One guy to look warily at is Zach Ertz. He scored much lower in all the drills than my other top prospects. 8th in 40yd time in OK; but 13th in vertical leap and 33rd in arm length are a real concern. I would really look past him if I needed a TE2. Ertz's down side really seems to out way his upside.     
      If I were drafting a TE next year, I don't know that I would take any of these guys as my TE1. I would definitely take any of the 7 highlighted guys as my TE2, especially Chris Gragg, Vance McDonald or Tyler Eifert. Of my top 7 keep your eye on Jake Stoneburner as a deep sleeper next year. He could sneak up and be the top rookie tight end next year.

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